Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai, October 20. "Shanghai Securities News" published an article "Reform or Revolution?" Photovoltaic cell technology "divide into two paths"". The article said that throughout the history of photovoltaic development, the technological revolution has brought about a reshuffle of the industry, and the position of the leader has changed several times. In the big wave, reducing costs and increasing efficiency is the eternal main line, but the specific "which way to choose" is a group of heroes competing for each other with their own plans.

On October 13, Akcome Technology released the investor survey minutes, announcing that the company as a whole has nearly 6GW of heterojunction cell (HJT) equipment installation hardware conditions, and has signed a total of about 4.8GW of intended equipment purchase orders. The first quarter of next year will enter the installation period.

On the same day, JinkoSolar Holdings, which is listed on the US stock market, disclosed a major breakthrough in large-area N-type single crystal passivation contact (TOPCon) technology. The highest conversion efficiency of full-area cells was calibrated by the Japanese JET testing laboratory to reach 25.4%.

Under the background that the conversion efficiency of the current mainstream emitter and backside passivation cells (PERC) is still difficult to exceed 24%, the battle over who is the future of photovoltaic cells between HJT and TOPCon has gradually moved from a "war of words" to a "real battle" confrontation".

From a technical point of view, the two routes have their own advantages and disadvantages, both of which are to find a balance between the "impossible triangle" of "low production cost, high efficiency and long-term effect" of photovoltaic cells. From the perspective of the layout strategy, the choice of each manufacturer incorporates practical factors such as existing production capacity and transformation costs, and it is necessary to make a choice between the original technology path and the new development direction.

Before a clear technical route emerges, a "melee" between the old and new forces is inevitable.

The rise of HJT? See how much the cost can be reduced

HJT, which has been in the limelight in the capital market recently, is not a "new face" in the industrial field. As early as 2018, manufacturers such as GS-Solar, Jinneng, Zhongzhi, Hanergy, Tongwei, and Akcome successively released HJT fabric production plans. However, as soon as the "Photovoltaic 531 Policy" (that is, the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" issued on May 31, 2018) came out, P-type batteries represented by PERC quickly dominated the market by virtue of their price advantage. mainstream.

The essence of cell technology iteration is to take the one with better cost performance. "Cost-effectiveness" is specifically reflected in the conversion efficiency, manufacturing and use costs of the battery. At present, the mature PERC technology has fallen into a development bottleneck because the conversion efficiency of cells is close to the ceiling. This makes HJT with high photoelectric conversion efficiency and cost reduction potential once again "probe" and become the "seed player" of the next generation of photovoltaic cells.

From the perspective of the preparation process, the steps of HJT only need 6 steps (including 4 core steps), the industrial structure is simple, and the labor cost is low. In addition, due to its technical features such as high bifacial ratio, low attenuation, and low temperature coefficient, the power generation efficiency of HJT in the whole life cycle is 7% to 15% higher than that of PERC, which can greatly reduce the levelized cost of electricity.

But in the landing, HJT is still facing an insurmountable "cost barrier". For example, the cleaning and texturing process requires high cleanliness and complicated processes; more PECVD equipment is required for amorphous silicon deposition, and the coating speed is low; in addition, the amount of double-sided silver screen printing and sintering is greater than that of high-temperature silver paste, and silver powder becomes HJT drop. Ben's key.

The high cost of mass production has made photovoltaic manufacturers' previous actions on HJT to be "technical reserves" and "paper plans". Recently, Akcome Technology's "real knife and real gun" has rekindled the market's enthusiasm for HJT.

According to the data, in 2020, Akcome Technology invested in the construction of Changxing Base in Huzhou, Zhejiang, which is the first GW-level base of heterojunction in China. The first high-efficiency heterojunction cell production line was officially mass-produced in April this year. In addition to planning to complete the installation of 6GW in Taizhou, Jiangsu and Changxing bases in Huzhou, Zhejiang by the end of 2022, the company is in full swing to start the second phase of the Changxing base.

"Our overall plan is 22GW, but it needs to be implemented in stages. Because the technology of heterojunction has not yet come to an end, it is still being improved, and the equipment is also being modified." A related person from Akcome Technology said, "In the future, if the price of HJT components is If it can be on par with PERC, the gross profit margin will probably reach 20% to 22%.”

"It should be noted that the equipment compatibility of HJT batteries and PERC batteries is small, and the production line has great independence. The degree of cost reduction is more dependent on the growth of its own production capacity." Industry insiders said that the current equipment price of HJT batteries is about 450 million yuan/GW, while the production capacity is only 2GW to 3GW. "It should be said that the cost reduction space after HJT scale is relatively promising."

Due to the light "historical burden", many "new players" showed a strong interest in the HJT route. For example, Anhui Huasheng currently has a 500MW mass production line, Mingyang Smart plans a 5GW capacity, King Kong Glass plans a 1.2GW capacity, and Runyang Group plans a 5GW capacity.

Among the traditional cell manufacturers, some companies have shifted from “waiting and seeing” to “exploration”, and began to “test the waters” of the transformation from PERC to HJT in a low-key manner.

Taking the industry leader Tongwei as an example, the company put into operation a 400MW heterojunction test line in 2019, the highest conversion efficiency has reached 25.18%, and the mass production conversion efficiency has reached 24.66%. In the first half of this year, Tongwei newly built a 1GW heterojunction pilot line. At present, the relevant equipment has been debugged, and the production line is in the stage of ramping up production capacity. In addition, JA Solar, Canadian Solar, and Trina Solar also took prudent steps on the HJT road.